Ce « blog » a été écrit par Morgan Housel du site Motley Fool (rédigé en novembre 2013)- je le conserve précieusement dans mes « favoris » et je pense qu’il est toujours bon de le lire et de le relire de temps en temps. C’est tellement vrai….
My job requires reading a lot of financial news. It’s one of my favorite parts. But it gives me a front-row seat to the downside of financial journalism: gibberish, nonsense, garbage, and drivel. And let me tell you, there’s a lot of it.
Here are a few stupid things I hear a lot.
« They don’t have any debt except for a mortgage and student loans. »
OK. And I’m vegan except for bacon-wrapped steak.
« Earnings were positive before one-time charges. »
This is Wall Street’s equivalent of, « Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? »
« Earnings missed estimates. »
No. Earnings don’t miss estimates; estimates miss earnings. No one ever says « the weather missed estimates. » They blame the weatherman for getting it wrong. Finance is the only industry where people blame their poor forecasting skills on reality.
« Earnings met expectations, but analysts were looking for a beat. »
If you’re expecting earnings to beat expectations, you don’t know what the word « expectations » means.
« It’s a Ponzi scheme. »
The number of things called Ponzi schemes that are actually Ponzi schemes rounds to zero. It’s become a synonym for « thing I disagree with. »
« The [thing not going perfectly] crisis. »
Boy who cried wolf, meet analyst who called crisis.
« He predicted the market crash in 2008. »
He also predicted a crash in 2006, 2004, 2003, 2001, 1998, 1997, 1995, 1992, 1989, 1984, 1971…
« More buyers than sellers. »
This is the equivalent of saying someone has more mothers than fathers. There’s one buyer and one seller for every trade. Every single one.
« Stocks suffer their biggest drop since September. »
You know September was only six weeks ago, right?
« We’re cautiously optimistic. »
You’re also an oxymoron.
[Guy on TV]: « It’s time to [buy/sell] stocks. »
Who is this advice for? A 20-year-old with 60 years of investing in front of him, or a 82-year-old widow who needs money for a nursing home? Doesn’t that make a difference?
« We’re neutral on this stock. »
Stop it. You don’t deserve a paycheck for that.
« There’s minimal downside on this stock. »
Some lessons have to be learned the hard way.
« We’re trying to maximize returns and minimize risks. »
Unlike everyone else, who are just dying to set their money ablaze.
« Shares fell after the company lowered guidance. »
Guys, they just proved their guidance can be wrong. Why are you taking this new one seriously?
« Our bullish case is conservative. »
Then it’s not a bullish case. It’s a conservative case. Those words mean opposite things.
« We look where others don’t. »
This is said by so many investors that it has to be untrue most of the time.
« Is [X] the next black swan? »
Nassim Taleb’s blood pressure rises every time someone says this. You can’t predict black swans. That’s what makes them dangerous.
« We’re waiting for more certainty. »
Good call. Like in 1929, 1999 and 2007, when everyone knew exactly what the future looked like. Can’t wait!
« The Dow is down 50 points as investors react to news of [X]. »
Stop it, you’re just making stuff up. « Stocks are down and no one knows why » is the only honestheadline in this category.
« Investment guru [insert name] says stocks are [insert forecast]. »
Go to Morningstar.com. Look up that guru’s track record against their benchmark. More often than not, their career performance lags an index fund. Stop calling them gurus.
« We’re constructive on the market. »
I have no idea what that means. I don’t think you do, either.
« [Noun] [verb] bubble. »
(That’s a sarcastic observation from investor Eddy Elfenbein.)
« Investors are fleeing the market. »
Every stock is owned by someone all the time.
« We expect more volatility. »
There has never been a time when this was not the case. Let me guess, you also expect more winters?
« This is a strong buy. »
What do I do with this? Click the mouse harder when placing the order in my brokerage account?
« He was tired of throwing his money away renting, so he bought a house. »
He knows a mortgage is renting money from a bank, right?
« This is a cyclical bull market in a secular bear. »
« Will Obamacare ruin the economy? »
No. And get a grip.